Quarterly Strategy and Observations – 4th Quarter 2016

2016:  The Year of Unlikely Events

It was not the best year for U.S. pollsters, U.K. bookies, or anyone rooting against the Cubs for that matter. Last year did teach us to expect the unexpected, and that knee-jerk reactions are often wrong. The second half of …Read More

After the Election

The fourth quarter started off with stocks under pressure leading up to the November 8 U.S. Presidential election. After the election, the S&P 500® Index experienced a 4.6% rally, led by sectors previously out of favor such as financials and industrials.

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Uncertainty is in the Building (But May Be Exiting Soon)

The National Federation of Independent Businesses’ Uncertainty Index ended the year at record highs. Small businesses, which drive the U.S. economy and account for well over half the private sector jobs in the country, have held back hiring and capital expenditures …Read More

Inflation Watch (You don’t have to look far…)

Webster’s Dictionary defines inflation as “an increase in the amount of money in circulation, resulting in a relatively sharp and sudden fall in its value and rise in prices.” Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), has been low by historical standards …Read More

A Silver Lining in the Greenback

In a vacuum, higher interest rates in the U.S. versus the rest of the world can act to strengthen the U.S. dollar. Obviously, the value of a country’s currency is based on a multitude of variables, but one beneficiary of higher inflation and interest rates in the U.S. …Read More