Quarterly Strategy and Observations – 4th Quarter 2016

2016:  The Year of Unlikely Events

It was not the best year for U.S. pollsters, U.K. bookies, or anyone rooting against the Cubs for that matter. Last year did teach us to expect the unexpected, and that knee-jerk reactions are often wrong. The second half of …Read More

After the Election

The fourth quarter started off with stocks under pressure leading up to the November 8 U.S. Presidential election. After the election, the S&P 500® Index experienced a 4.6% rally, led by sectors previously out of favor such as financials and industrials.

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Uncertainty is in the Building (But May Be Exiting Soon)

The National Federation of Independent Businesses’ Uncertainty Index ended the year at record highs. Small businesses, which drive the U.S. economy and account for well over half the private sector jobs in the country, have held back hiring and capital expenditures …Read More

Inflation Watch (You don’t have to look far…)

Webster’s Dictionary defines inflation as “an increase in the amount of money in circulation, resulting in a relatively sharp and sudden fall in its value and rise in prices.” Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), has been low by historical standards …Read More

A Silver Lining in the Greenback

In a vacuum, higher interest rates in the U.S. versus the rest of the world can act to strengthen the U.S. dollar. Obviously, the value of a country’s currency is based on a multitude of variables, but one beneficiary of higher inflation and interest rates in the U.S. …Read More

A Taxing Topic: Reform, That Is

Make no mistake, tax reform is coming. There is a distinct possibility that Congress could begin this year the most sweeping tax reform since 1986. Tax bills originate in the House Ways and Means Committee, which is chaired by Kevin Brady, a big proponent of reforming …Read More

The End of the Grocery Store?

A strange thing happened on the way to the grocery store, namely young people stopped buying their food there. Demographic shifts are highlighting the rapidly changing landscape of traditional food retailers. From 2012 to 2015, only one demographic group, those 55-64, …Read More

The Bond Box – Notes from the Bond Trading Desk

Taxable Fixed Income Markets

Treasury rates moved sharply higher after the surprising election results on November 8 as hopes for tax reform and fiscal stimulus added to recent upbeat economic news. After the interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December, …Read More

Quarterly Strategy and Observations – 3rd Quarter 2016

Phew. That is the sound of relief heard during the third quarter characterized by a lack of market volatility and generally positive returns across most markets. The S&P 500 Index® went almost two months without a one-percent move in either direction, …Read More

Short-Term Gain/Long-Term Pain

One enviable aspect of Denver Investments’ almost 60-year existence is our collective institutional memory and the ability to pass down knowledge from generation to generation of portfolio managers. In doing so, we gain perspective not easily accessible to younger financial …Read More